If I may be so bold, I’d love to start today’s edition with a story about TDA. Just like the businesses we report on in this newsletter, we’re also always looking at ways to strengthen our ability to do what we do, and do a great job at it for you.

Today is another step in that journey - TDA’s podcast is officially one you can watch! We’ve gone live with video podcasts on Apple Podcasts today, and if you’re an iPhone user on the latest iOS version (iOS 26.4 for those playing at home - you can check in your settings what you’re on) you’ll be able to see our podcasts brought to life by our epic team of content creators and journalists.

Check it out, and let me know what you think!

Experts have warned over the past week that Australia could soon face a recession amid the impacts of the war in the Middle East that has added pressure to energy prices and global supply chains.

Economists say any prolonged disruption could keep costs elevated, even without further escalation.

A recession is typically defined as a sustained period of economic decline, often marked by falling growth and rising unemployment.

While there is no single agreed definition of recession, it is generally defined as a period of low or negative economic growth, often alongside rising unemployment.

A commonly used technical definition is two consecutive quarters (so six months in total) of negative growth.

In Australia, the economy grew by 0.8% in the December quarter last year, followed by 0.5% growth in the quarter before that.

The latest data for this year has not yet been released, and it may take some months before the full economic impact of global instability is reflected in the figures.

The last time Australia was in a recession was in 2020 during the pandemic, when gross domestic product (the total value of goods and services produced in the economy) fell 7% in the June quarter – the largest quarterly drop since records began in 1959.

Westpac CEO Anthony Miller told the ABC last week that geopolitical tensions and inflation are increasing the risk of a recession in Australia.

"It's much more complicated today because of events in the Middle East over the last few months than it would otherwise have been,” he said. “So I think it puts more pressure on how [the Reserve Bank] can get us through this environment."

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) lifted interest rates from 3.85% to 4.1% last month in an effort to slow spending and bring down inflation.

Westpac has also predicted the RBA could raise interest rates a further three times this year to 4.85% — a level not seen since 2008 during the GFC.

However, senior economist at the Australia Institute Matt Grudnoff told The Daily Aus that energy price spikes alone are unlikely to tip Australia into recession, provided the war in Iran does not escalate further.

Meanwhile, Treasurer Jim Chalmers has warned inflation could rise to as high as 5% (inflation was at 3.7% in February). The RBA’s target range is 2–3%.

Reporting by Lachlan Keller.

Thinking about where to start investing?

→ Buying individual shares gives you exposure to a single company, which can mean bigger swings up or down.

→ ETFs let you invest in a whole basket of companies at once, spreading your risk and making diversification easier. 

Pick what fits your goals, time frame and risk tolerance.

_{Transparency: This is a sponsored section of the newsletter. It’s the best way we can keep this newsletter free for you.} 

_{Information is general in nature. Investing carries risk. To find out more, you can visit commsec.com.au} 

Elon Musk could soon become the world’s first trillionaire, with SpaceX moving closer to listing on the stock market.

The company filed for an initial public offering (IPO) last week — the process of selling shares to the public for the first time.

If it goes ahead in June as expected, the listing could value SpaceX at more than $US2 trillion, making it the biggest IPO in history.

If the IPO goes ahead, it would mark a major moment for the space and tech industries — opening up one of the world’s most high-profile private companies to public investors.

Musk founded Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SpaceX) in 2002 with the aim of building cheaper rockets and eventually sending humans to Mars.

Since then, the company has become a major player in the global space industry.

In 2008, its Falcon 1 became the first privately developed liquid-fuel rocket to reach Earth’s orbit.

Later that year, SpaceX secured a major NASA contract to transport cargo to the International Space Station.

The company also operates Starlink, a satellite network designed to expand internet access to remote areas on Earth. Starlink says it has more than 10 million users globally.

As of 2026, there are more than 10,000 Starlink satellites in orbit — making up a large share of all active satellites.

Earlier this year, Musk merged his artificial intelligence company xAI — which developed the controversial chatbot Grok — with SpaceX.

Following the merger, SpaceX was valued at around $US1.25 trillion ($AU1.8 trillion).

A company “goes public” when they first list on a stock exchange – like Australia’s ASX, or the New York Stock Exchange. This is known as an IPO.

This gives investors the chance to buy a stake in the company, while founders and early backers can sell part of theirs.

Before the listing, new investors can buy shares at a set price during what’s known as the IPO “offer period”.

Once the company is publicly listed, its shares can be bought and sold on the stock market, and shareholders can vote on some company decisions.

SpaceX is aiming to raise US$75 billion in the IPO, according to Bloomberg, which would make it the largest IPO ever, well above Saudi Aramco’s $US29.4 billion record in 2019.

Musk, who has an estimated 40% share of the company, could see his net worth surpass $US1 trillion if the listing goes ahead.

SpaceX has filed confidentially, meaning it can work through regulatory checks before publicly revealing details like its stock ticker.

Reporting by Lachlan Keller.

Scams are evolving - here’s the latest warning

Impersonation scams are becoming more sophisticated. Criminals are now posing as banks, government agencies and trusted brands through messages, calls and even AI tools.

The warning comes as these scams are designed to feel increasingly real - often creating urgency or pressure to get people to act quickly.

What are scammers doing differently now, and what should you look out for?

_{Transparency: This is a sponsored section of the newsletter. It’s the best way we can keep this newsletter free for you.} 

A London mansion linked to an Australian celebrity has sold for more than £270 million ($517 million), setting what’s believed to be a new record for the most expensive home ever sold.

The property was sold by British developer Nick Candy, the former husband of Holly Valance — an Australian singer and actress who rose to fame in the early 2000s.

The home is located in London’s Chelsea and sits on a two-acre site once home to Robert Walpole, widely considered Britain’s first prime minister.

The sale price far surpasses the previous record set in 2024, when a mansion owned by the Saudi royal family in London's Regent’s Park sold for £139 million ($265 million).

Reporting by Lachlan Keller.